Real estate economic update for March 2010

by Ana Connell on March 6, 2010

PASADENA, CA - SEPTEMBER 24:  A 'sold' sign st...
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National new home sales and existing home sales:

New home sales came out lower than projected for January.  Inventories rose to 9.1 months, not altogether surprising for January but median prices were down 5.6%, year over year.  Overall new home sales were down 22.9% for 2009.

Existing home sales fell 7.2% in January, following the 16.2% drop in December.

Personal income and outlays showed strong in January, up .4%, and personal spending was up .5%.  It’s a mixed bag in that non-durable goods rose by 1.8% (mainly gasoline prices), so the end result is that spending on durable goods was up .1%.  Overall people are still struggling with unemployment, which was marginally better, but not good enough to really provide support.

Pending home sales continued to fall, down 7.6% to 90.4%.   A variety of factors, including the recent bad weather are cited in the report.

I’ll post local numbers in the next few days, meanwhile look out for:

  • International trade numbers (International trade is composed of merchandise (tangible goods) and services.  Data are also available for 36 countries and geographic regions. Detailed information is reported on oil and motor vehicle imports. ) out next Thursday.
  • Retail sales coming out next Friday.
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Here’s a look at our economic calendar for this week:

  • Consumer Confidence came out today and is definitely downbeat at a reading of 46, down 10 points from last month.  The jobs picture continues to plague the consumer.
  • Case-Shiller home prices came out today showing mixed results.  The data showed the second straight month of month to month declines at -.2%, but there is normally a seasonal adjustment downward during the fall and winter.  Overall the data shows a consistent improvement in the West, Southeast and Midwest.

  • New home sales on Wednesday are projected to come in a bit higher than the last reading of 342,000 units which represented a 7.6% decline in December.

  • Existing home sales, GDP and Consumer Sentiment all come out on Friday and will be closely watched by the financial markets.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 22-26 2010

Wed. February 24

10:00

New Home Sales

Thu. February 25

08:30

Durable Goods Orders/Jobless Claims (Initial)

Fri. February 26

09:55

Consumer Sentiment

Fri. February 26

08:30

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Fri.  February 26

10:00

Existing Home Sales

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Sales of existing homes, including single-family and condos, increased 13.9 percent to 6.03 million units in the fourth quarter, compared with 5.29 million units in the third quarter, according to a report by NAR.

Sales also were 27.2 percent higher than the fourth quarter of 2008.  Distressed properties accounted for 32 percent of fourth quarter transactions, a decline from 37 percent a year earlier.

The national median home price for existing, single-family homes:

  • $172,900 in the fourth quarter, a 4.1 percent decrease compared with the fourth quarter of 2008.

The median home price of existing, single-family homes in the West:

  • $227,200, a decline of 8.9 percent compared with the fourth quarter of 2008.
  • existing-home sales increased 16.2 percent in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 1.38 million units, 18.2 percent higher than a year ago, according to the report.
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Foreclosures decrease 10 percent in January

by Ana Connell on February 18, 2010

Sign Of The Times - Foreclosure
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Foreclosures decreased 10 percent in January compared with December, according to RealtyTrac®’s monthly foreclosure market report.  Foreclosure filings were reported on 315,716 U.S. properties in January, a 10 percent decrease compared with December, but up 15 percent compared with January 2009.  The report also found nearly one in every 409 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in January.

Foreclosure activity in California decreased 10.77 percent in January compared with December, with one in every 187 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing, according to the report.

Six California cities registered foreclosure rates among the top 10 in the nation: Modesto, one in every 107 housing units; Stockton, one in 107; Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, one in 109; Merced, one in 109; Vallejo-Fairfield, one in 112; and Bakersfield, one in 118. (information courtesy of CAR)

The big news here is that the rate is declining and we seem to be going in the right direction to help shore up property values.  We may not see Burbank property values at the levels we saw 5-6 years ago , but this is a huge indication that we are going in the right direction for stable home prices.

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Home sales up…..prices down

by Ana Connell on February 7, 2010

RICHMOND, CA - JULY 23:  A sold sign is seen i...
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Home sales up, prices down nationwide
Home sales in 25 metro areas increased 1.5 percent nationwide in November compared with the previous month, and 46.7 percent compared with November 2008, according to a report by Radar Logic Inc.

Prices decreased 4.2 percent across all metro areas surveyed; however, eight areas experienced year-over-year price increases.  Half of the areas with year-over-year price increases were in California, according to the report.  Radar Logic’s Residential Property Index (RPX), which measures changes in the price per square foot of homes, shows that transactions increased in 9 of the 11 months ending in November.

“Affordability measures are at their highest levels in years and home sales are moving toward normal levels. Nationwide, foreclosure sales have declined from 29 percent of total sales in November 2008 to 23 percent of sales in November 2009,” said Michael Feder, president and CEO of Radar Logic.

  • Calif. median home price: December 09: $306,820 (Source: C.A.R.)
  • Calif. highest median home price by C.A.R. region December 09: Santa Barbara So. Coast $847,500(Source: C.A.R.)
  • Calif. lowest median home price by C.A.R. region December 09: High Desert $121,010 (Source: C.A.R.)
  • Calif. First-time Buyer Affordability Index - Third Quarter 2009: 64 percent (Source: C.A.R.)
  • Mortgage rates - week ending 1/28/10 30-yr. fixed: 4.98 Fees/points: 0.6% 15-yr. fixed: 4.39% Fees/points: 0.6% 1-yr. adjustable: 4.29% Fees/points: 0.5% (Source: Freddie Mac)
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There was a great article written in the LA Times about the new changes to the HAMP or Home Affordable Modification Plan by the US Department of the Treasury and the US Department of Housing (HUD).

The changes, designed to help improve the conversion from trial loan modifications to permanent modifications, take effect June 1. Mortgage servicers may elect to implement the changes sooner.

Here are some of the important points to note:


Under previous guidelines, homeowners were not required to document their incomes prior to

receiving a trial mortgage modification. The trial modifications typically lasted three months, during

which time the servicer was supposed to collect documents to verify the homeowner’s income. If the

borrower met the monthly obligations, and submitted the required paperwork, the modification was

supposed to be made permanent. However, many homeowners failed to provide the necessary

paperwork, or the loan servicer lost the paperwork, resulting in just 66,465 permanent modifications

out of the nearly 1.2 million trial modifications.


The updated process requires that servicers collect three documents prior to granting a trial mortgage

modification: A formal application, including a description of the hardship created by the mortgage;

proof of income, such as two recent pay stubs or the most-recent profit and loss statement for selfemployed

borrowers; and a form authorizing the Internal Revenue Service to release tax data to the

servicer.


If the borrower meets the modified payment requirements for three months, the modification

automatically will be made permanent. The Treasury Dept. also said it will allow servicers some

discretion in making loan modifications permanent only if minor paperwork is missing. This discretion

will help address a large backlog of incomplete modifications.


Under the plan, servicers also will be required to respond within 10 days to an initial request for a

modification. Once documents are provided, the servicer will have one month to let borrowers know

whether they qualify for a trial modification.


Servicers also must calculate whether the lender or current owner of the loan will benefit from a

mortgage modification, or if foreclosing on the property is in the loan owner’s best interest. If the loan

owner will benefit from a modification, the servicer is required to grant the modification. Requiring

borrowers to provide financial documents upfront will enable servicers to decide if a modification or

foreclosure is the best option.


To read the full story, please click here:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mortgages-income29-2010jan29,0,3075748.story

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California housing inventory at record lows

by Ana ConnellJanuary 28, 2010

California’s Unsold Inventory Index (UII), a closely watched index indicating the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, declined to 3.8 months in December, the lowest level in five years, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.).  By comparison, [...]

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Burbank Home Sales 2009

by Ana ConnellJanuary 9, 2010

Burbank home sales for 2009 were a mixed bag of  news.  Overall prices were down from 2008 and the amount of time that it took to sell these homes trended up.  The big news is how low our inventory is, down 32% from 2008, which points to the potential for higher prices next year.
Additionally, the [...]

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Pending Home Sales

by Ana ConnellJanuary 4, 2010

Happy New Year!
Starting off the new year with the following reports this week:

Pending Home Sales-due out tomorrow is a leading indicator of housing activity as it provides an indication of demand and economic momentum.
FOMC Minutes-Notes on the previous Federal Open Market Committee meeting which offers insights into the Federal Reserve’s actions and the direction of [...]

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How much shadow inventory do we have?

by Ana ConnellDecember 31, 2009

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So what is shadow inventory?
Shadow inventory refers to the housing supply that the banks have foreclosed on ( banked owned properties-REO’s) and are getting ready to foreclose on.  According to First American Core Logic, as of September 2009 there was a 1.7 million supply of these homes nationally, as compared [...]

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